Defining Small and Big Pairs

What exactly are the small pairs in no-limit hold 'em? Depends on who you ask. Doyle Brunson considers everything below queens to be small, though he puts JJ-99 in a tier above 88-22 within that division (Supersystem, pp 453-486). Phil Hellmuth considers 88-22 small (Play Poker Like the Pros, pp 139-143). The author of Learn Texas Hold 'Em says 99-22 are small. And what about queens? Are they big or middle pairs? Again there's no consensus. The above three specialists illustrate the variety of perception regarding the "size" of pocket pairs:

Brunson

Big AA-KK
Middle QQ
Small JJ-99, 88-22

Hellmuth

Big AA-QQ
Middle JJ-99
Small 88-22

Learn Texas Hold 'Em

Big AA-KK
Middle QQ-TT
Small 99-22

Let's grant that everything up to 8's should be considered small and focus on 9's. Let's also grant that aces and kings are obviously big and wonder about queens. Many people play 9's hyper-aggressively, but when playing tight at a full table I sure don't. Let's look at statistics. Mike Caro provides what he calls a "Table of Misery Index" for all pocket pairs (Caro's Most Profitable Hold 'Em Advice, p 23). The following percentages represent the chances that the flop will have an overcard and not make you a set (three of a kind) with your pair.

2-2 88%
3-3 88%
4-4 87%
5-5 86%
6-6 85%
7-7 81%
8-8 77%
9-9 70%
T-T 60%
J-J 47%
Q-Q 31%
K-K 12%
A-A 0%

This means that if I have 9's, there's a 70% chance that the flop will have a T, J, Q, K, or A and not another 9. I don't know about you, but when there's a 70% that I'll be miserable by definition, I'm not going to treat my hand like it's an Uzi. I would have to play the 9's so aggressively that it could become self-defeating. I consider 9's to be small.

Queens are harder to pin down. I don't often need to play them as aggressively as jacks and tens, and for that reason I consider them big. At the same time, Brunson's caution with queens is well advised. When there's almost a 1 in 3 chance of an ace or king (but not queen) hitting the flop -- and knowing that a lot of people like to play any ace and even kings from any position -- you have to be ready to jump ship. Queens are big with a lower-case "b".

So my own breakdown of the pairs would go as follows. (9's are small, and queens are big though in a tier below aces and kings)

Big AA-KK, QQ
Middle JJ-TT
Small 99-22